• Asia Still Hanging in

The gloomsters would have us believe that the end of the world is upon us, that the world "recession/depression is about to descend.

China is slowing, cutting back purchases of commodities, like iron ore, as Mount Gibson (our tiny 4th placed iron ore exporter) revealed to the ASX yesterday.

Likewise Japanese machinery orders fell again in August, which was taken as a 'bad sign' when in fact it merely matched the slide in industrial output and exports seen in the past month or so. With Japanese car production down, you'd expect machinery orders to be down as well.

Yes it was a third successive fall, and yes Japan is experiencing a downturn, but like Australia, its banks are now sound and very well-resourced, as are Japanese companies.

Life is tough in world markets, especially in the US and especially for cars, machine tools, consumer entertainment and IT products, but Japan is not the Japan of the terrible period 1989 to 2002.

China cut rates for the second time in less than a month, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong matched the rate cuts of the bigger central banks (but Australia remains out in front).

Japan didn't cut rates because they are already at half a per cent and there's not much room to go. In fact Hong Kong's cut was the second in as many days after the banks trimmed the margin over a key US rate for basing local rates on Wednesday.

Some commentators took that as being symbolic: in reality it's just another example of what happens when you have a bubble and you don't tackle it head on, as the rest of the world is now slowly doing with the credit crunch/freeze.

China's rates are now 0.54% lower in less than a month: sounds like they are taking advantage of the drop in headline inflation in the last four months to try some stimulation.

In fact these events are all symptomatic of a region and economies being hit by the swirling forces from the great credit crunch and freeze. It would be natural for that to happen, but it is not the end of the world, nor will the Asian region be as rattled as the US, Europe and the UK.

Even sluggish Japan will be doing better than the US, Europe and the UK by this time next year, according to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund this week.

It was a gloomy and, some would argue, more realistic World Economic Outlook from the IMF with its grim message: "The world economy is now entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s".

But there are hints and figures throughout the gloomy report that provide some little rays of sunshine for Australia: we are not the basket case some here would have us believe, although economic conditions have worsened globally, hence the 1% rate cut by the Reserve Bank this week.

The strongest growth this year and next will be in the Asian region, the area we have become 'coupled' to: in fact the IMF's much reduced 3% estimate for the world next year depends exclusively on growth in Asia, led by China and India.

Here's what the Fund said about what it called "Emerging Asia", which excludes Australia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and Singapore.

"Growth in the region is projected to moderate to 7¾ percent in 2008 and 7 percent in 2009 from 9¼ percent in 2007. Weakening external demand is likely to weigh on exports, but, in some cases, the impact may be mitigated by still-loose macroeconomic policies and currency depreciation. Investment will also moderate, mainly because of deteriorating export prospects.

"Consumption will ease because of still-high fuel and food prices, although subsidies, which are common in the region, may cushion the impact on purchasing power. The risks to the outlook are firmly to the downside.

"The main concern is that a buildup of stress in the global financial system and a sharper-than anticipated global slowdown could further weigh on activity. On the upside, domestic demand may prove more resilient, with falling commodity prices providing a boost to real incomes."

"The WEO notes that commodity prices remain at much higher levels in real terms than at any time in the past 20 years, despite some correction since mid-July amid the slowdown of the global economy.

"The driving force behind the sustained run up in commodity prices has been the tightness of demand-supply balances for many key products and the realization that markets are likely to remain tight for the foreseeable future, after many years of ample spare capacity.'

And that's the core of the goodish news from the IMF outlook for Australia and that 'good' news for Australia is better than the news from the Fund's latest report being received in the US, Japan, UK and Europe, and even in New Zealand.

But the situation is still dangerous, as the Fund said at a media briefing: "The world economy is entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous financial shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s". That can't be forgotten.

But while investors sell the Australian dollar and shares because of our exposure to global growth and commodities, those disappearing over the horizon (and those quietly cheering their departure here) should read the IMF's report because they will find one tantalising comment in particular about the outlook for 2009.

The Fund identified three factors that would lay the groundwork for the gradual recovery next year: the stabilisation of commodity prices, although at 20-year highs; a bottoming out of home price declines in the worst US housing slump in decades; and the resiliency of emerging economies "benefiting from strong productivity growth and improved policy frameworks".

Gee, after the huge sell-off in the likes or oil, copper, nickel, lead and zinc, not to mention many softs and agriculturals, commodity prices will still be at their highest level for two decades. While not the stuff of the so-called commodity super-cycle promoted by some analysts, it's a far healthier position if achieved than many doomsters here would have us believe.

The Reserve Bank knows our terms of trade are going to retreat in the coming year as demand and consumption fall, but demand higher than in the past couple years, will still be there to keep things ticking over.

China seems determined not to allow its economy to go off the boil. India is, but more problematic with an election next year. But even the developed economies of the region in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will be doing much better than the US and Europe.

The Fund cut its July forecasts updates for global economic growth to 3.9% for this year and 3.0% for 2009, the slowest pace since 2002. The revisions shaved off 0.2% and 0.9% from both years, respectively.

"The major advanced economies are already in or close to recession, and, although a recovery is projected to take hold progressively in 2009, the pickup is likely to be unusually gradual, held back by continued financial market deleveraging," the report said, hours after the US Federal Reserve and five other central banks coordinated cuts in interest rates to boost economic growth and jump-start credit flows.

The IMF said that emerging and developing economies were also slowing and "The immediate policy challenge is to stabilize financial conditions, while nursing economies through a period of slow activity and keeping inflation under control".

It warned that the growth projections for 2009 came "against an exceptionally uncertain background ... and the outlook is subject to considerable downside risks, with the US, Europe, the UK and Japan close to or sinking into recession".

But against that big qualification, it's not all bad: Australia will still grow by 2.5% and 2.2% next year, China will grow by 9.7% and 9.3% next year and growth in many other parts of Asia, outside of Japan, will still have modest growth, albeit down from the levels of this year.

But compared to the sort of 2009 that confronts Europe, the US, UK, and especially countries like Ireland and Italy and America, Asian growth outside of Japan will be positively booming by comparison.

Even Japan will be doing better than much of the developed world: the IMF estimates that the Japanese economy will grow at 0.7% this year (off a substantial 0.8% and 0.5% in 2009, down a full 1%).

The United States by contrast will grow at 1.6% this year (thanks to the strong second quarter growth of 2.8% for GDP) and a bare 0.1% next year.

Two eurozone economies were set to contract: Italy, both this year and next, and Spain, in 2009, while the UK will contract by 0.1% next year after growth of just 0.1% this year (and it's already in the can).

But China will grow by an unchanged 9.7% this year and 9.3% next year, which was a cut of 0.5%.

Again it's not to say it's all on the up for Asia: as the IMF says the risks are firmly "on the downside".

"In this exceptionally uncertain situation, there are substantial downside risks to the baseline outlook. In addition to concerns related to protracted financial stress and the deteriorating U.S. housing market, potential disruptions to capital flows to emerging economies and the risks of rising protectionism represent additional risks to the recovery.

"Inflation risks to growth are, however, now more balanced because commodity prices have retreated in response to slowing global growth

"The advanced economies grew at a collective annualized rate of only 1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2008.

"The U.S. economy suffered the most from the financial crisis that originated in its subprime mortgage market, which has tightened credit conditions and amplified the housing correction that has been under way since 2006.

"Emerging and developing economies have not decoupled from this downturn.

"The WEO notes that growth has also eased for this group of countries as a whole.

"Growth has been most resilient in commodity-exporting countries, while the countries with strong trade links to the United States and Europe are slowing markedly.

"Also, some countries that rely heavily on bank-related or portfolio inflows to finance large current account deficits have been hit hard by an abrupt tightening of external financing."

That's Australia in a nutshell in the last two paragraphs: solid commodity driven growth, large current account deficit funded by high short term borrowings. It is still a finely balanced thing here.

IMPORTANT: AIR reports about financial markets and investment products in the widest sense possible. The AIR website and all its contents is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore talk with their financial planner or advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • US Markets Plunge in Mindless Sell-off

US shares plunged in a period of sustained selling over the last two hours of trading in New York that saw the major indices close down a huge 5% to 7% or more.

After rising at first (despite a late fall in Europe), the market traded flat until about two hours to go when the selling started.

The sell off coincided with the one year anniversary of the all time high, and with the removal of a ban on short selling financial stocks and others like the once mighty General Electric.

That was a recipe for disaster from a bunch of market regulators who have been consistently behind the ball.

The Dow fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003 as the shorts attacked Morgan Stanley and GE in particular.

General Motors was sold off heavily as well on a gloomy forecast about future car sales in the US and around the world for the next couple of years. Ford also tanked.

The Dow closed under 8700, down 679 points or 7.3%. The S&P 500 fell 7.6% or 75 points to its lowest level since May 2003.The market peaked around 1565 on the S&P 500, so its off 42%.

European shares and US stock futures fell in to close down for another day, though the sense of blind panic wasn't there.

That was after an early promising start saw indexes turn strongly positive.

That was due to a rebound in Asia and IBM's solid third quarter profit report, plus the impact of the UK bank bailout and co-ordinated rate cuts.

But there was more action on bailing out banks with Dexia guaranteed over the next year at least by France, Belgium and Luxembourg.

Iceland nationalised its third major bank and the European central Bank pumped in more cash into the euromarkets, and said there would be unlimited funds for lending until at least January 20 next year.

All this activity ended up weighing on markets and ending the earlier positive tone.

The futures market had our stocks down 1.5% with a couple of hours to go, but as Wall Street tanked, the SPI fell to be down 180 points, or around 4.5%.

China fell in late trading and Japan reversed earlier gains, but the loss was just 0.5% compared to Wednesday's panic driven 9%-plus plunge.

The Australian ASX200 was off 1.5% drop which contained a bit more than just the re-weighting of the CBA. Tokyo was down just 0.5% on the Nikkei, but Hong Kong bounced 3.3% on the second rate cut in as many days.

The Dow Stoxx 600 in Europe finished down 2% after being up earlier in the day.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended up 1.0%.

London was up 3.6% on the FTSE 100 as banks and resource stocks rose after this week's big sell-down. But it closed down 1.2%.

The Paris CAC 40 shed 1.55% and the Frankfurt Dax lost 2.53%.The Dax had earlier been up 2.6% and France's CAC was up 3%.

Russia's market jumped sharply, up 17% at one stage after Wednesday's 14% fall. The $US36 billion in emergency funding to banks will start later today, according to media reports.

Asian shares did better after some of the region's central banks lowered interest rates to limit the economic impact of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The cuts followed coordinated rate reductions yesterday by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Sweden's Riksbank.

Apart from Australia, many Asia Pacific markets rose for the first time for more than a week as hopes grew of a boost to global economic growth as central banks in Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong cut interest rates to follow coordinated monetary loosening in the UK, America, Europe and China.

The Bank of Korea and Taiwan's central bank lowered their rates by 0.25% and Hong Kong cut its benchmark to 2%, its second cut in as many days. The Hong Kong market's 3.3% rise came after dropping 8.2% on Wednesday.

The Bank of Japan, which kept its policy rate at 0.5% pumped US20 billion into the financial system.

The Australian dollar ended firmer for the first time in 10 days as the co-ordinated rate cut by major central banks helped stem the currency's recent plunge.

In the overnight session, the currency slipped to a five-year low of 64.54 US cents, but by last night it had recovered 10% to over 70 US cents, and then back to 68 US cents.

The volatility is a sign of a lack of knowledge by traders who are looking to make money from the volatility, not fundamentals.

Oil continued to edge lower in Asian trading. Nymex light sweet crude fell by less than a dollar a barrel to $US86.59. Gold dropped to $US892.33 an ounce in New York. Opec is calling a conference for next month to look at production cuts.

The Indonesian market remained closed after trading was suspended on Wednesday after the second fall of more than ten per cent in the week. India was closed for a holiday.

Australia was the only major market to disappoint. The ASX 200 lost 1.5% or 67 points at 4321. It was the lowest close since July 20, 2005.

The CBA closed at $42.40, down 6% after resuming trading after raising $2 billion from to pay for the BankWest purchase: it sold shares for $38 each.

NAB fell 62 cents to $23.73, the ANZ lost 35 cents to $16.65 and Westpac eased 17 cents to $21.50. Macquarie lost $1.00, or 3.1%, to $31.50.

BHP Billiton fell 6 cents to $29.80, while Rio Tinto lost $3.11, or 3.8%, to $78.01. The ratio of BHP to Rio shares traded was at the lowest since BHP made its bid for its mining rival, trading at 2.61 shares for each Rio share. The offer is 3.4 BHP shares for each Rio unit.

Brambles rose after it said its pallet business CHEP USA had finally reached an agreement with US retailer Wal Mart to continue participating in its logistics network. Brambles shares added 24 cents, or 3.3%, to $7.59.

IMPORTANT: AIR reports about financial markets and investment products in the widest sense possible. The AIR website and all its contents is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore talk with their financial planner or advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • US Economy Heading for a Hard Landing

The US economy is in far worse shape than many in the US think, and is heading for a hard landing.

American consumers, who account for 70% of demand and consumption in the huge, $US14.4 trillion economy, are in trouble and cutting back spending, thanks to falling levels of credit.

In fact the credit cuts are now much deeper than anyone thought after the release of up to date figures.

The IMF said overnight that the US appeared to be sinking into a recession, it said.

The Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook that the US was now poised to expand 1.6% this year and a bare 0.1% in 2009.

That was an increase of 0.3% and a decrease of 0.7%, respectively from the prior forecast just three months ago, in which the IMF had lifted its April WEO forecasts, citing improving economic conditions in the US.

That improvement for this year relates to the 2.8% rise in second quarter economic growth.

The estimates were made before the latest figures though on consumer borrowing which tell a story of US consumers cutting back, or being cut back on credit, the lifeblood of the economy.

Figures for September store sales from some major retailers overnight showed sluggish growth for most, with downturns for those selling more expensive products, such as department stores.

Wall Mart managed a 2.4% rise in same store sales, but that was less than forecast, discount bulk chains lost Costco did OK, but Target reported a 3% drop in comparable store sales.

JC Penny, the big department store chain reported a massive 12.4% drop in same store sales in September, far worse than expected.

But it's no wonder after the Fed's earlier report.

Figures Tuesday night from the Federal Reserve on consumer credit show the biggest fall in the history of the recorded figures.

At the same time major industrial, Alcoa, suffered a 52% drop in third quarter earnings and has joined the mighty General Electric in eliminating a share buyback to conserve capital.

The national body for US car dealers warned that 700 would go out of business this year alone, and more would follow in 2009, if the credit freeze was not eased soon. Car sales fell 27% last month and the way the credit freeze is working, that drop will increase in the coming quarter.

And in a dramatic move the Fed extended the boundaries of its 'Lender of Last Resort' understanding by supplanting temporarily the frozen $US1.6 trillion commercial paper market, the day to day lifeblood for American business activity.

At the same time Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke held out hopes for a rate cut, but said the US economy was heading into tougher times.

The Fed said it would set up a new Commercial Paper Funding Facility to buy three-month debt from banks and non-financial companies.

It's probably one of its most important decisions because if this vital short term debt can't be rolled over for US companies (end employers) when it falls due; the American economy will be crunched to a halt.

The move was desperately needed with figures showing that 28% of the market would fall due this week and a further 12% next week.

The Fed's figures last Friday showed that in the week to last Wednesday, the market had already contracted $US215 billion in the past three weeks and virtually all new lending was being done overnight.

If that 28% to 40% of that huge amount can't be rolled over, the US economy will be crunched by the end of October at the latest, so the Fed had to act.

Without the Fed's move to being a sort of bank, the US economy will crunch to a complete halt in a matter of weeks, throwing hundreds of thousands of people out of work and setting off a domino chain of corporate failures across all sectors.

This freeze in the commercial paper market is why the likes of Alcoa and GE have cut their share buybacks and why Bank of America cut its dividend by 50% and is seeking to raise $US10 billion in new capital.

It has to support the acquisitions of Countrywide Financial Services and Merrill Lynch and the added burdens they will impose on its finances: but it is like all other banks and has cut lending across the board.,

But it's clear consumers, the engine of the US economy, were being denied credit by banks and other lenders well before the eruption of this latest phase when the credit crunch turned to a freeze.

But there's nothing the Fed can do immediately to ease the squeeze on consumers: each week tens of thousands of them are losing their jobs, their homes, having their pay cut and hours trimmed and are being denied credit at a rate not thought possible until the Fed released the credit figures for August, a month before the crisis worsened with the spate of failures and bailouts in the US starting with Lehman Brothers.

The Fed reported that consumer credit fell by $US7.9 billion in August, the biggest fall since the statistics began being collected in 1943, to $US2.58 trillion.

Bloomberg said that economists forecast an increase of $US5 billion in consumer credit during August, so the Fed's report came as a complete shock to the market.

Total consumer borrowing dropped at a rate of 4.3% in August, the most since January 1998.

Revolving debt such as credit cards decreased by $US612 million during August and non-revolving debt, including auto loans, dropped by $US7.3 billion.

That fall was a month before the 27% plunge in US car sales last month, so it's likely that consumer credit again fell sharply in September.

The news of the Fed's move and the sharp contraction in consumer credit (one of the Fed's 'Key Economic Indicators') makes it easier to understand the contents of a speech overnight by chairman, Ben Bernanke in which he painted a gloomy picture of the US economy.

He would have known of the move to try and stop the rot in the commercial paper market and the sharp fall in consumer credit, so it was no wonder he was saying:

"Economic activity had shown signs of decelerating even before the recent upsurge in financial-market tensions.

As has been the case for some time, the housing market continues to be a primary source of weakness in the real economy as well as in the financial markets. However, the slowdown in economic activity has spread outside the housing sector.

"Private payrolls have continued to contract, and the declines in employment, together with earlier increases in food and energy prices, have eroded the purchasing power of households. This sluggishness of real incomes, together with tighter credit and declining household wealth, is now showing through more clearly to consumer spending.

"Indeed, since May, real consumer outlays have contracted significantly. Meanwhile, in the business sector, worsening sales prospects and a heightened sense of uncertainty have begun to weigh more heavily on investment spending as well.

"The intensification of financial turmoil and the further impairment of the functioning of credit markets seem likely to increase the restraint on economic activity in the period ahead."

"All told, economic activity is likely to be subdued during the remainder of this year and into next year. The heightened financial turmoil that we have experienced of late may well lengthen the period of weak economic performance and further increase the risks to growth.

"To support growth and reduce the downside risks, continued efforts to stabilize the financial markets are essential. The Federal Reserve will continue to use the tools at its disposal to improve market functioning and liquidity."

Meanwhile the chairwoman of the National Automobile Dealers Association says the credit crunch and economic problems are likely to cause 700 auto dealers in the US to go under this year.

Speaking to the Automotive Press Association in Detroit, Annette Sykora said quick action will be needed to ease the squeeze and restore consumer confidence and help the industry.

An estimated 94% of American car buyers finance their purchases, Ms Sykora says but even those with good to high scores and solid credit records can't get financing.

Dealers with good credit also are having trouble getting financing for their inventories.

It's the same story in home lending and also in credit cards where credit lines and revolving credit arrangements are being terminated or refused.

According to the National Auto Dealers Association, there are around 20,000 auto dealers in the US. About 430 dealerships closed last year and 295 closed in 2006.

The estimate of 700 dealers going out of business does not include new dealers that will enter the market.

According to the Fed's credit figures, lenders were cutting back on car loans (and other credit in August) and car sales fell 11% in the month. The 27% fall in September reflects the intensification of the credit freeze and helps explain why car sales sank 27% to less than 1 million for the month for the first time since 1993.

Some buyers are not committing because they fear for their jobs or can't get the right vehicle when they are looking for more fuel-efficient models.

Regardless of the reason, it means consumers are spending less. September's retail sales figures are out in about 10 days or so and are likely to make miserable reading, along with the consumer spending figures a little later in October.

IMPORTANT: AIR reports about financial markets and investment products in the widest sense possible. The AIR website and all its contents is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore talk with their financial planner or advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Markets All Over the Place

A bad day for shares again.But did we see a steadying emerge in late US trading?

After bouncing all over the place and mostly in the red, the US markets looked like closing with a small gain, but anther late burst of selling saw the major indexes end off up to 2% or so.

The Dow fell 190 points, or 2%, the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 1.1% and Nasdaq dropped lost 0.8%.

The major indexes again swung wildly throughout the session, with the Dow down as much as 252 points and up as much as 180.

The Dow's fall was also due to the weakness in Alcoa which reported a 52% slump in third quarter earnings the night before. Alcoa fell 13%.

Gold rose, then eased, but was still up, copper and oil weakened and some grains were firmer in Chicago.Gold was up $US27 an ounce to around $US909 in New York.

Our market was looking to start higher, but the late drop on Wall Street pushed the futures market down by 12 points.

The co-ordinated interest rate cuts from the Fed, the ECB, the Swiss, Swedish, Canadian and the UK central banks helped: the 0.50% drop in each case was dramatic, but emphasised the forcefulness of our 1% cut from the RBA which has put Australia firmly ahead of the policy curve.

China wasn't a part of the deal, but trimmed its key rate by 0.27% in a surprise move.

European markets were down sharply last night with falls of 3% to 5% common for another day. Japan fell more than 9% and other Asian markets were off more than 5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 8.2% in an example of near panic trading, just like Tokyo.

London was very weak on the looming bailout fund announcement for the country's banks from the UK Government. London's FTSE 100 fell nearly 8% early on as investors were unconvinced about the bailout package.

Europe's Stoxx 600 Index was off 6% taking its loss this week so far to 13%. But the selling eased and it recovered from being down almost 8% atone stage.

The London FTSE 100 index of leading shares shed 5.2% after the bank bailout plan was announced, while in Paris the CAC 40 fell 6.4%.

Frankfurt's DAX lost 5.8%, the Swiss market shed 5.5% and 5.2% in Madrid after the Government there revealed a bailout plan. Milan fell 5.7% after it was suggested the country's banks needed to raise more capital.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 7.4% with Tokyo's Nikkei off 9.4%, the biggest drop since October 1987. Australia lost 5% or more, Indonesia shut after a 10% fall and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell to a fresh 2 year low despite an effective rate cut.

The Index is now off more than 42% this year

In Europe Russia's market was again closed after the main index fell more than 10%. The main US dollar index was off 14% when trading stopped. trading was also halted in the Ukraine and in Rumania.

The euphoria of Australia's rate cut on Tuesday was swamped after Wall Street fell more than 5% in a miserable day's trading that extended across the region.

Oil was easier, down by more than $US4 to just over $US86 a barrel, a 10 month low; copper lost ground to around $US2.49 a pound and gold edged up $US4 to trade around $US886 in Europe last night.

The Indonesian market was halted when the main index fell more than 10%. Jakarta's main index has tumbled 21% in the past week; the biggest drop in 25 years. Brazil's market was at two year lows. It's down 22% in the past five days.

The Nikkei plunged 9.4%, its biggest one-day drop since the 1987 stock market crash, as fear spread of a global recession, fuelled by expectations of a slide in profits at Toyota and the rapidly firming yen.

Volkswagen this week moved past a falling toyota to become the world's biggest car maker by market value. Volkswagen is subject to takeover speculation in Germany.

Tokyo brokers said that panic over the fast-spreading financial crisis dragged down markets across the region and in Japan the Nikkei set another five-year closing low.

The Hang Seng slumped 5.5% despite Hong Kong's monetary authority cutting interest rates to keep the credit crisis from spreading.

India's Sensex Index fell 3.1%; China's CSI 300 lost 3.8% and South Korea's Kospi lost 5.8% to the lowest since July 2006.

Australia's ASX 200 Index declined more than 5% as building approvals declined for a seventh month and consumer confidence fell. Alumina, an associate of Alcoa, lost ground after partner Alcoa reported a 52% drop in earnings. Alumina shares closed down 16% at $A2.50.

It was Australia's second-worst day of the year, closing down 5%, wiping out all of Tuesday's Reserve Bank-inspired rally and adding more than 3% in losses for good measure.

It was also the lowest close in three years for the stockmarket, while the Aussie dollar also plunged, hitting a low of well under 68 US cents (67.49 US cents in local trading)

The ASX200 index closed 230.6 points, or 5%, lower at 4388.1. The fall was second only to January 22's 7.1% hammering.

Among the banks, the ANZ Bank lost 6.3%, or $1.15, to $17.00, while NAB shed $1.65, or 6.4%, to $24.35.

Westpac dropped 6.9% or $1.60, to $21.67. The Commonwealth was in a trading halt after announcing it would pay $2.1 billion for BankWest, raising some $2 billion from institutional investors. St George lost 7.4%, or $2.24, to $28.12 and Suncorp shed 8.1%, or 89 cents, to $10.11.

Macquarie Group shares lost 9.2%, or $3.30, to $32.50 and Babcock and Brown fell 20%, or 25.5 cents, to $1.05.

Mining companies were again savaged as investors ignored the impact of a falling Australian dollar to focus on the worsening commodity prices and diminishing prospects for global economic growth.

BHP Billiton lost 5.7%, or $1.80, to $29.90, while its takeover target, Rio Tinto dropped 7.6%, or $6.65, to $81.12.

IMPORTANT: AIR reports about financial markets and investment products in the widest sense possible. The AIR website and all its contents is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore talk with their financial planner or advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Right Now is the Time to Buy Investment Properties

If you are thinking about buying investment properties, right now is the time to buy. There are many reasons that make it super easy to buy a home at the moment so you can start making money. These reasons include the record low prices, the banks, and the renters.

The housing crisis has caused the prices and the values of homes to plummet to record-breaking lows. Consequently, right now is the best time to buy a home. There are homes on the market that sold for $300,000 five to ten years ago now up for sale for less than $100,000. You can buy a home right now and immediately begin making a lot of money every month as you rent out that home. If you just want to buy the home and wait for the market to get better and not rent it out, you can do this too. In either case, you are virtually guaranteed to make a profit right now.

Keep in mind, however, that real estate investments -- though one of the top methods for creating wealth -- are not without risks. Renters are by no means guaranteed, and you could be stuck with an empty home for several months. Furthermore, there are good renters and bad renters, and there is no sure way for telling one from the other.

Bad renters may end up treating your property poorly and costing you far more in repairs than you make from rent. Worse still, is that most state laws are on the side of the renter. It is often difficult to evict a renter -- and even if you do successfully evict someone, angry tenants might decide to leave you a nasty going away gift in the form of a destroyed home.

As far as banks are concerned, they want to get rid of the homes they own as quickly as possible. And right now the banks own many more homes than they would like to have because of high foreclosure rates. This is a big liability and cost for the bank. The bank doesn't have time to be sure the home is not vandalized or broken into. All they want is the money. As a result, many banks will do whatever it takes to practically give you a bank owned home.

Another reason that now is the time to buy investment properties is because there are so many thousand of renters on the market that you don't have to worry about any homes going empty for a long period of time. In addition, the supply and demand law has kicked in more than ever before because of the crisis is causing rentals to more than double in prices. This is an amazing benefit that you can take advantage of and charge more than double what you are paying on the mortgage payment if you are financing the home.

  • Frequently Asked Questions About Pink Sheets

In order to educate yourself on the different terms and practices related to Pink Sheets, read along as we try to answer the common FAQs about them.

What are the Pink Sheets?
The Pink Sheets is an electronic quotation service which displays quotes for over the counter (OTC) securities in real time. It is not a registered stock exchange company, and it is not affiliated with the NYSE or NASDAQ.

What are the different stocks being traded in Pink Sheets?
The different stocks being offered in Pink Sheets are penny stocks and other over the counter (OTC) securities. Penny stocks have share prices pegged at less than $5.

What is the difference between OTCBB and Pink Sheets?
The Pink Sheets is not governed by NASDAQ or other SEC regulated stock exchange companies. Companies who want to trade in Pink Sheets are not required to submit financial papers. On the other hand, OTCBB or Over the Counter Bulletin Board is governed by NASDAQ, which means that the companies that want to enter OTCBB should be able to complete the requirements as required by NASDAQ. Pink Sheets also offer tickers and an electronic trade negotiating system to market makers, which OTCBB is not offering.

How can a company get quoted in Pink Sheets?
If your company wants to get quoted in Pink Sheets, you must first find a market maker who will quote the stock prices for you. Market makers are also known as broker-dealers. Your market maker should be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and he should also be a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD).

What different kinds of companies are quoted in Pink Sheets?
There are many companies listed in Pink Sheets, but the majority of them are:

Small start up companies that have not yet grown enough to meet the requirements of NASDAQ or SEC to be publicly listed.

Large foreign companies that are publicly listed in their home countries, but do not pass the requirements of being listed in the US. The most common reason for this is that the financial statements of these foreign companies are not in conformity with the GAAP, which is required to be listed in the US.

Companies that volunteered to be delisted and try their hand at over the counter (OTC) stocks trading.

Banks and companies which are thinly traded.

How do pink sheets work?
If you are an investor who wants to trade on pink sheets, you must contact a brokerage firm to act as the agent between you and the market maker in pink sheets. The stockbroker will get quotes from the electronic data market system and will enter the details online. The order will then be sent to the trader, either by computer or telephone.

If the trader is also the market maker for the specific stock ordered, then he will execute the order. If he is not the direct market maker, he will forward it to the market maker who is offering the best price for the security in subject, who will in turn execute the order.

After this process, a transaction report will be sent to the stockbroker, which he will relay to the investor through a transaction confirmation.

  • Stocks Investment: Things To Ponder On

Ever wondered what stocks investment is all about? Or wondering if it is one of the lucrative places to put your money, hard earned or not?

Here is one perspective on what appears to be a highly sophisticated investment venture.

Stocks investment is a gamble. While investing one's money in a business and managing it yourself also is, stocks investment involves a higher risk. Let me start with the basics then build up to what I mean.

When one purchases stock from a company, he is putting his money in the hands of the company. This discussion of course goes with the assumption that the company is not of the fraudulent type.

If the company performs well, more people will invest in it, and the price of the stock will go up. If not, then investors will slowly divest their stock, and the price will go down. This is very analogous to the purchase of any item that has a limited supply. If the demand of the item goes up, then the price of that item will also go up. If the demand of the item goes down, then the price of the item, to make it attractive to buyers, will have to also go down.

If it the scenario were as simple as this, then it would be very easy to predict when it would be safe to divest from a certain investment. Unfortunately, it is not. There are a myriad of reasons why a stock price would go up or down. For example, the company doesn't have to perform poorly for its price to go down. If a current investor thinks that some other investment is better than his current one, he might think of selling his stock at a lower price, in order to transfer his money to the other company as early as possible.

As early as possible, this is one of the many things to consider in investing in stocks. Take the case of Microsoft. Imagine how much you would have already earned had you been one of the early investors of Microsoft, when it still wasn't as powerful as it is today.

But then again, how would you have known that Microsoft would become what it is today? This is another thing to consider in stocks investment. One must either have pretty good foresight, or be able to conduct a thorough research on the company. If you don't have either one, then you're merely relying on pure luck.

Rather than rely on pure luck in stocks investment, one has the option to put those two tasks in the hands of more experienced individuals, also known as a stock broker
. Theoretically, these people have conducted a lot of research on certain stocks on the market. They can provide you with advice as to when and where to invest your money, and when to divest from a particular stock.

Before one can get started, he must have had a thorough assessment of his finances. How much is he willing to lose? Similarly, how much is considered a win before divesting? Stocks that do good today can't go on like that forever. Thus, stocks investment requires a combination of patience, foresight, and luck.

  • The Basics Tools And Information Before Stocks Investment

Stocks investments are something many consider out of their league. People see it everyday in the newspapers, on the TV, or on the Web but a lot of us never really understand what it means like when Walmart showed a 2% gain today, or the Dow Jones Average fell 400 points yesterday.

It's daunting enough to see the ticker tape. That's the scrolling tape-like image with symbols like DJI 58.92(0.53%) that are usually colored green with an up-arrow or red with a down-arrow that you see running on your TV screen in business channels or in some business-related web pages.

While it would take a lot of time to fully understand all that needs to be learned regarding stocks investment, this article will strive to wipe out the initial questions one has when the term stock market comes to mind.

First, let us define what a stock is. It would be fair to say that stock, which is also known as equity, refers to a share in the ownership of a company. This would include the company's assets and earnings. The more shares one owns, the greater is his stake in a company.

Now, let us assume that somebody put up a company, it made good, and he's now looking to expand his facilities. He might be needing additional capital to pursue a breakthrough product that he just discovered and wants to develop. One solution: sell shares to investors to raise the cash he will need.

This is where the stock market enters into the picture. It is where he'll want to sell his stock. In a nutshell, the stock market is just one highly sophisticated market place where people buy and sell stocks. This market does not require you, the buyer or the seller, to be physically present.

Most people avail of the services of a stock broker, one who is more knowledgeable of the current trends in this market, who takes charge of the buying or selling. This is usually done in stock exchanges such as NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) or other stock exchanges.

Once you know which stocks your money was invested on and you know what symbol represents it (e.g. DJI), you can monitor the performance of your stocks via the ticker tape or on the graphs. If the quantity or the graph is going up, that's good news. That means your stocks investment is gaining. But if the quantity is going down or the graph is going down, you should be wary as that means your stocks investment is losing and you might consider divesting from that stock.

You don't have to sell immediately when the numbers go down because that is completely normal. It may go up later after some time or it may not.

It may now appear to you that stocks investment is a glorified gambling venture. In a way, it is, since we don't have total control of the business in this case. There are ways, however, to reduce the unpredictability of it all.

Most of the time, especially if your stocks investment lands in the securitized stock exchanges like NYSE or NASDAQ, it would help to research and know more about the company you are interested in investing in.

  • Stocks Investment: Sound Strategies For The Wise

If you are an investor, there are many strategies that can be employed when venturing into stocks investment. To start with, investors should learn to analyze market trends, do extensive research of the companies and industries that they are interested to invest in, and purchase shares at just the right time.

More often than not, a stable company makes known to the public its profits and its standing in the business or industry, at a particular time of the year. Anticipating positive results for these particular companies, prices of shares are expected to go up prior to any such announcements, and the potential buyer should refrain from making any purchases or stocks investments at this time.

In other words, when trading in shares, market timing is everything. Below are some strategies that may serve as useful guide for those on their way to taking on stocks investment.
First, develop a diversified portfolio that meets an acceptable level of risk tolerance. Even the most conservative stocks investment portfolios are not risk-free. Try to achieve a balance of high-quality bonds and treasury bills, with the more risky financial instruments.

Investing in the stock market can prove to be intimidating for the neophyte investor. When unsure of how to proceed, always refer to financial advisors and stock market analysts for some guidance before going ahead with any transaction or stock purchase.
The stocks investment motto has always been Buy Low and Sell High, referring to the prices of company shares. Basic mathematics will tell us that buying low and selling high would give us the maximum return for our investment.

As a stocks investor, always update yourself with added knowledge about your chosen company: how it is doing in terms of profits and in comparison to the competition, its market capitalization, and any future opportunities open to it. Arming yourself with company knowledge will broaden your horizon on where to invest, and at the same time alert you to the possibility of stock prices going down due to negative circumstances.

It is also important to look at things from a long term perspective. Before putting one's money in a company, an investor should assess his resources and set limits as to how much he should invest, when to hold on to these shares, and when to sell.

Plan and execute a good exit strategy. When an investor has made a good return on shares of stocks of a certain company, then it is usually recommended that you cash in on these shares and move on to another company's stocks, especially one that you have been studying and eyeing on to give you higher gains.
Set a Stop Loss Limit.

When a company stock is not doing well, there is just so much that you can take. Predetermine the amount of loss that you are willing or are able to absorb. You should be able to just sell out or exit when the market level nears this tolerance limit or worse, crosses it.

Like any business venture, the objective of stocks investment is to maximize potential returns yet at the same time minimizing risks. There are many strategies that one can do this, the most important of which are doing one's homework in research investment, knowing when to buy and when to sell, and diversifying one's portfolio.

  • Understanding The Forex Calendar

A forex calendar (also called a foreign exchange calendar or an economic calendar) is one which is designed to help traders and investors learn about upcoming major economic information, such as the consumer price index, private medical insurance rates, and unemployment rates. Even government reports are included. These calendars operate on a much shorter time scale and they are generally released every hour or so.

There are many tools at the disposal of a global trader and the forex calendar is an integral one. One can hardly make decisions (or be informed about a managed account) if one does not know the current state of the market, and keeping tabs on a forex calendar is an easy way to do just that. This, in conjunction with sharing trade strategies or advice across the web, can really give a relatively new trader that extra edge. The calendars make it easy and quick to keep up with recent economic events. Although the foreign exchange market is extremely stable, even small events can cause brief ripples in the market and give a patient, observant investor time to slip in and make a tidy profit.

One can hardly consider oneself up-to-date with economics without paying at least some attention to the global currency exchange. It is one of the largest and certainly the most stable market currently available (not to mention the fact that it is widely considered to be perfect competition), and offers trading opportunities on a wide variety of scales, from individual to corporate, from small amounts of bills to huge transactions. There is a lot to keep informed about, and forex calendars can certainly help.

Without the aid of forex calendars, investors would hardly know when to act (and even still, what action to take!). It is highly recommended that the budding investor (or long-time traders who want to be sure to stay in touch with the market) pay close attention to the information offered by the foreign exchange calendars. If you are going to react quickly and effectively to the ever-changing foreign exchange market, you will have to make absolutely sure you know what is happening, and when. It probably is not a bad idea to check a calendar several times a day and record any changes to the market, which would allow the savvy investor to react accordingly. Want to get the most out of your account? Be sure to check a calendar.

If you ask most Forex traders what standard deviation of price is you will me met with a blank look but understanding it is essential Forex education which if you know its significance and use it, can help you make bigger forex profits...

To show how valuable understanding it is - I once saw a trading system that only used standard deviation to generate trading signals and in just a couple of years, it went from a $100,000 to just over $1.1 million, in real time trading, simply trading changes in volatility.

Lets take a look at it in more detail, how to calculate it and a trading indicator to help you apply it in the markets.

What is Standard Deviation?

Standard deviation of price is the term that is used to statistically measure the volatility of price in any financial market (not just forex) and gives a view of how widely values (closing prices) are dispersed from the average price.

Dispersion is simply the difference between the actual value (present closing price) and the average value or mean closing price.

The wider the difference between the actual value and average value the higher the standard deviation will be. Standard deviation therefore gives you an overall view of market volatility and dealing with market volatility is one of the major challenges any financial trader has to deal with

Measuring Standard Deviation

To measure standard deviation and see how volatile a market is you do the following calculation:

Take the square root of the variance, the average of the squared deviations from the mean and you have the standard deviation.

If you find it a little confusing at the moment don't worry as there are visual indictors you can use which will show it to you in simple terms and you don't need to know the calculation to use it.

The Importance of Volatility

When markets are very volatile standard deviation will be high and when they are for example trading in ranges standard deviation will be low and you can see it historically and use it in your trading

Using It in Your Forex Trading Strategy

It's a fact that periods of high volatility (price spikes) don't last long and you can see this in any market and prices will normally return back to the longer term average. Price spikes are normally the result of the emotions of greed and fear as we as traders push prices to far either up or down.

Generally you can use standard deviation in the following way

High standard Deviation Won't Last

When price spikes occur and standard deviation is high historically, you can look to take profits or enter contrary trades against the spike.

Buying the Average

Prices will always tend to dip back to the average in strong trending markets and this is an opportunity to load up trades in the direction of the trend.

Low Standard Deviation Moving to High and New Trends

When a market is not volatile and features low standard deviation and it turns higher you will very often see a new trend develop and it's an advance warning to get ready to execute a trading signal.

A Visual Tool to Measure Volatility

A very useful tool which gives you a visual view of standard deviation and volatility is the Bollinger Band and every trader should be familiar with it.

Bollinger bands are volatility bands which are drawn either side of a simple moving average and combine a simple moving average with the volatility of the individual market in a trading envelope.

The outer bands show you the volatility and the simple moving average gives you the long term value of the market. You therefore can see how volatile the market is historically via the outer bands and see the value of the market at the centre band.

Just simply using the outer bands to decide when to take profits and enter new positions and buying or selling back to the moving average can be highly effective.

We will look at Bollinger Bands in more detail in the next article of essential forex education and how you combine them with momentum indicators to generate trading signals and improve your market timing.

The simple moving average is one of the most effective tools you can use. It's simple to understand and easy to use and if you are interested in getting in on trends, its one of the best forex trading indicators if used correctly...

Here we will look at the best periods to use and how to apply them but first let's take a look at the the equation for a moving average is very simple and is:

The closing price is added up and divided by the period of the moving average.

You can of course use as many days as you like, traders typically use between 5 and 200 days but which ever time frame is used, the aim is the same:

To identify trends over specific periods of time and smooth out the day-to-day price fluctuations caused by market volatility.

This is based on the concept that short term price spikes, are simply caused by human emotion and don't last and prices will return back to the moving average or fair value. The real value of moving averages is in finding value areas to buy or sell back into in strong trends and when, a moving average is broken, to indicate when a trend is over.

What are the best Time periods?

This of course is all down to personal preference and to a degree how volatile the market is you are trading.

My own view based around 20 odd years of trading, is that short term averages are of little use i.e. under 10 days. Why? Because you are trying to get the longer term value and if the average used is to short, it ends up being part of the price spike!

Two Periods I Like are:

20 Day MA

When a market is trending strongly and you want to get in a trend - look at a 20 day Moving average to buy or sell back to. This is an excellent one to use, simply wait for the move to the value area and time your trading signal. If a market is trending strongly, this will give you plenty of opportunities to get in at good risk to reward.

40 Day MA

I like this one as my last line of defense in a trend to trigger a stop loss and go flat and also to indicate if a new counter trend may be emerging.

The two above are time periods I like to use - but everyone has there favorite period to put into their forex trading strategy.

Simple Yes but Very Effective if Combined with Momentum

Moving averages maybe simple but the logic is timeless. Price spikes are emotional and don't last and prices will always come back to fair value again and a look at any forex chart will show you this. This repeats over and over again, as human nature never changes and moving averages allow you to spot areas of value.

While we consider it one of the best forex trading indicators for trend followers and use it - never simply buy or sell, without confirming price momentum is in your favor first. It identifies the area to watch NOT the trading signal.

In the next article in this series we will look at the best momentum indicator to use with moving averages for better market timing.

Here is an automatic currency trading system, that's been used by some of the world's best traders and its totally free for you to use. Take a look at how it can lead you to currency trading success. Everything you need to know about it is enclosed...

The History

This currency system dates back to the late seventies, when trading legend, Richard Donchian noticed a reliable 4 week cycle in commodity markets and while designed to trade commodities, it works on any trending markets and as we all know - currencies offer great trends.

The System

You won't find a simpler system than this. Its based on one rule only and you don't even need a computer to do the calculation, you can do it on paper - here it is:

Buy a new 4 week high in a currency and reverse the position to a short, on a 4 week low. Keep an open position in the market at all times and keep reversing from a high to a low and vice versa, on the next 4 week high or low - that's the rule.

Its simple - but it works and will continue to work for the following reasons:

Why it Works

It works because it's based on sound market logic that never changes which is:

Currencies will trend for long periods and they will invariably start new trends and continue them, from breakouts to new market highs or lows.

All the best currency trading systems are simple.

There is no correlation between complexity and success. Despite the fact that it makes money (test the rule and you will see how much), most traders simply won't or can't follow it.

Why Most Traders can't follow it

Most traders like to believe all the over the top copy from the junk robot vendors, that have never made any money - but claim to do so. They base their claim upon back tests and simulations knowing the closing prices, which obviously means nothing, in terms of what a user will make.

They like the trendy names and the idea of profits with no drawdown (dream on!) and dismiss this one as to crude and to simple - despite the fact it makes cash and that's what a system should be judged on.

Others simply can't stick with it because, it's so long term and is not to bothered about prediction (traders love to try and hit pinpoint market tops and bottoms even though it's impossible) and simply cannot execute the signal which is totally objective.

Big Long Term Profit Potential in 15 Minutes a Day

If you are not worried about a fancy name, a glossy pack and promises which are based on hype, this automated currency trading system can give you the potential to, seek long term profits in around 15 minutes a day.

Take a closer look at the system, its simple to understand, makes money, has been used by savvy traders for a quarter of a century, will never go out of date and best of all - its free! Take a look at what it can do for your currency trading strategy and you will be pleased you did.

  • Increase Your Profits 100% With an Edge

If you have ever played at any game of chance you would realize that sometimes you seem to be on a wining streak. Luck seems to be your best friend and everything you do makes you more money. This is what we term as an “edge” in trading. This is where the trader has a temporary advantage over the market and the probability of success becomes higher than normal. In trading terms your edge would be called a trading plan. A good trading plan can help you sky rocket your profits. Likewise a poorly thought out plan will hamper you and at serious cases make you lose all your money. A trading plan can be based on a number of techniques and factors. The main methods of analyzing data are fundamental and technical analysis, but every person has to decide for themselves what is better in their particular situation and for their goals. In any case, charting and graphing data and visualizing market trends are a part of every technique and something that every successful trader will do. What is really important in your trading plan is money management. Money management is essentially a defensive position that seeks to protect the trader’s account before seeking any profits. While this might seem counter productive to many new traders, take a moment to consider the implications. If your account keep s on losing money, ever new trade you engage in means that your position size becomes smaller and thus your earning power weakens. But if you protect your account and go for smaller gains, over a period of time you compound your profits, thus growing your account steadily. The professionals all use money management rules and I would suggest you follow in their footsteps. The next area to look at in your trading plan is your set up. Your set up can be said to be your edge, as it tells you when you have a temporary advantage over the market. It does not mean that your set up is always correct; there will be times that you will lose no matter what happens. That’s why you need good money management techniques. A good set up should comprise of both fundamental analysis and technical analysis. There are traders who rely on just one analysis type and have had great success with that. Still if you have all the tools why not use them to increase your chances of success? Fundamental Analysis will help you spot long term trend movements and that will help you decide that your set ups will either be all shorts or all longs. Unless you are an experienced trader I would advice against counter trend trading as it is usually chancy and doesn’t yield a lot of profits for the risks taken. Technical Analysis usually shines when you use it to decide your entry and exit positions. As technical analysis is deals with price actions it is a trailing indicator and based on the premise that history repeats itself, we can estimate the next time the market will react in a set manner based on study of past price actions. A good trading plan comprises all these elements and if one is missing, the plan will not be whole. Prepare your trading plan then get started, trade your plan and take all trades as they come. This way you will earn more profits over time.

  • How to Keep a Trading Journal?

A trading journal is an essential tool for any serious trader who wishes to make money. Many traders know its value but very few actually put it into practice. The ones that do write in a journal are the traders that are most often successful. A disciplined trader is a profitable trader, and keeping a trading journal is the first step to building your discipline. This might sound simple or easy but I assure you that to actually get started can be very difficult. In fact many traders give up after a while and rely on the logs that the broker provides. The logs or the history gives information that is at best marginally useful. Most of the time it gives information that is totally useless. What can you do with the past price actions? Nothing, the information provided gives you no new advantage to your next trade at all. A trading journal is not about writing in the prices of your entry and exit and the time you executed the trade. The trading journal is all about psychology, more specific it is about your individual emotional psychology before, during and after the trade. For example, you decided to trade the EUR/USD and based on your trading plan you went long. This despite of the fact that your gut feeling told you that the trade is not going to work. Still you followed your trading plan, half way through the trade the price comes to about a few pips away from your stop loss and you decided to quit the trade. So you exit the trade. A few moments later the price shoots to your original profit target. Had you stayed in the trade you would have made an X amount of pips. The information presented above is to help you write your journal. This is a classic case that probably happens a couple of times a day for most traders. We fail to stay in the trade, we fail to trade the plan and most of all we fail to distance our emotions from our trading! Give yourself a couple of these sorts of trades and I assure you, you will be seeing a big zero in your account soon. Your trading journal will assist you to prevent and to cure yourself of these bad habits. How that happens is that you record in everything you feel and do. From before the trade, to during the trade and after the trade had been completed. It is not difficult to keep a trading journal; you just got to remember some points • Everything goes in nothing is left out • Pay attention to your emotions when you write • Do not be embarrassed, you are the only person who will read your journal so be honest • Did I mention that you have to be honest and write everything inside, if you walked off to grab a beer, write that down and write why? • Nothing is too silly to record inside your journal. • Always begin the journal before the trade, and end it after the trade. The above points are important so keep them firmly in mind as you practice your journal. Here is a sample entry of mine: “1600 the EUR/USD is coming close to the set up. The larger trend is a down trend; the set up will be a short. Position size will be as normal 3% of account and profit objective 20 pips from entry, stop loss 10 pips. The news might be breaking in a few hours time the market is slow, don’t know if I should take this trade or not, having some doubts here. 1615 entered the trade at 1.4567, profit target set at 1.4587, stop loss set at 1.4557. 1620 moved stop loss to 1.4567 the trade is now trading at profit. Feeling a lot better now, had a lot of doubts before I entered, the news was not very good. 1645 trade closed at profit took profit and ran! Happy that I did it, as prices shot down. Lucky I managed to make some money. Feeling rather excited for my next trade.” The above example is what you should strive to keep each and every trade. Let’s face it there is not a lot to do when we are in the trade itself so we have plenty of time to write. Learning to write will build discipline in you and when you reflect on your entries after a week of trading you will learn a lot about yourself and your trading psychology. This is something that no mentor or Forex school can teach you. You have to experience it yourself, only by this experience can you be a successful trader.

  • How to Make Money Like a Professional Trader

There is a large difference when you place a professional trader next to a rookie trader. Let us assume that both traders the professional and the rookie both use the exact same trading plan, and trade the exact same currency pair. One will be profitable the other would lose. Needless to say the profitable trader would be the professional trader. Just how then does the professional trader so it? What is so different that using the exact same trading plan, one would make money the other would fail? Folks the answer lies in the psychology of the trader. Trading psychology is used to describe the way a trader thinks and behaves when a trade is taking place. A trader with the proper mindset will be able to overcome the temporary setbacks from the market and move to grow his or her account consistently. And over time that is what makes a trader rich. The good news is that the professionals didn’t start out as professionals. They too had to learn to master their minds and their emotions when they trade. That means you can also take the same measures to improve yourself and become as proficient a trader as the pros! A trader’s personal psychology is very important to his or her bottom line, to start things off one of the most important aspects to master is discipline. A trader with discipline will be at an advantage as compared to other traders. Remember that in trading we deal with other humans, and if you are more disciplined in your approach you automatically have an inherent advantage over the other traders who trade by emotion or whim. Building discipline is not an easy task; it will take time and effort for you to master discipline. To start things off you will need to keep a journal. In your trading journal record all aspects of the trade including the feelings you were experiencing before, during and after the trade. Keep your journal consistent and make it a pint to record all trades. After a week of trading, reflect on your trades and see when you make the most money and when you lost the most. Next is handling losses when they occur. There will be losses and the world’s best trading plan can only give you at most a 75% success rate. That means one quarter of the time you will lose. So for every hundred trades you take, you will lose 25 trades. To survive that sort of numbers you have to learn how to handle your emotions. If after a loss, you get angry or upset and decide to take revenge on the market by increasing your position size, you will lose your account really fast. A professional trader knows that losses are inevitable and when they occur, you just have to shrug off your losses and trade your plan. It is tough to and frankly it can be unpleasant to do. A trick I learnt from my mentor was to treat the money in the account as someone else’s money and not mine. I have to treat my account as my client and the wins I make is my commission, the losses are my clients! A good trader will recognize that trading is never simple, because as long as there is a human element involved the most unexpected can happen. But because of the unexpected a good trader with the correct mindset can potentially make a lot more than other traders with weaker wills.

  • How to Stop Losing Money in Forex

When a trader begins to trade, what normally happens is that the first few trades are usually successful ones. The new traders then becomes so confident of their supreme abilities in trading that their carefully crafted trading plan and money management rules are cast aside. Suddenly their trades are not going so well anymore, they begin to lose more and more regularly. It almost seems that the market is ganging up on them to rip the carpet from under their feet! New traders being inexperienced tend to take it very personally and then sub consciously decide to punish the market. The position sizes become larger and larger, money management is totally forgotten, and their trading plan is in tatters now. Any piece of rumor or hearsay is taken to be the gospel truth and acted upon. When all these fail and they still lose money, they turn to “sources” that tout the holy frail of trading. That one plan that could make a trader a million in less than a year! (Come on by now wouldn’t you have woken up already?) At that desperate situation, many traders choose to believe these sources and make some hefty purchases. They re fund their accounts and take their new trading plan to the market. History repeats itself, their first few trades makes them money then they being to lose again and again. Soon their account is wiped clean and it is about 6 months from when they first started on their path to forex trading. Does the above story sound faintly familiar to you? It should because close to 95% of new traders that trade goes through this cycle. Usually at this point in time I get a lot of applicants applying to join my classes and they clamor and complain that it’s the broker’s fault or that the trading plan was a rip off or that they were unlucky. If you found the above example silly or even simplistic, then you are correct. But isn’t it surprising that 95% of the people who start off as traders give up after 6 months? Simplistic or silly as it may seem, this happens so often that it isn’t even funny anymore. In fact most new traders focus so much on easy and fast profits that they forget the real money making methods. How then do you stop losing money in Forex and start making some profits? Forex is a business that works best with a defensive stance. If you keep running after the dollars you will only end up losing your whole account! To protect your account must be the first and most important action you as a trader take each time you trade. There is nothing wrong with the trading plan you started out with or the plan that you bought online or off the shelves. There is noting wrong with the brokers or with the market for that matter. There is a lot of wrong in the way traders think! Discipline both mental and emotional, well planned profit objectives, total money management control. These are the elements that are sadly lacking in the education of many new traders. Prevent yourself from losing anymore money in Forex, plan your trades, trade your plan. Keep a tight rein on your money management, and never take an aggressive stance. This way you will stop the outflow of your money and increase the inflow of pips!

  • Why is a Good Broker Essential?

It is hard to define good and bad, especially when they are terms slapped on to something as subjective as a brokerage service. A broker serves a few primary functions in the trading cycle. The brokerage takes orders from sellers and buyers and matches them. The broker also provides the most recent prices and most brokers provide a charting service as well. These services are not provided for free, the broker takes a commission from you each time you trade. This charge is called the pip spread. What that works is that when you enter a trade, you are automatically in the red. This spread varies from broker to broker but on the whole as a market, pip spreads for trading the majors are very low as compared to trading exotic currencies. A good broker can then be define as a broker who provides the basic services and keep the spreads low and fixed. The issue about floating spreads is that there are times when the spreads can go to atrocious levels and that means if you place your stop loss too low, there is a high possibility that you get kicked out of a trade through no fault of yours or because of any market movements. The good thing about having fixed spreads is that you can work the spreads into your trading plan. That gives you control of how you want to direct the trade. The reason why having a good broker is essential to your profits is that; you want to have reliability and stability when you trade. The last thing you need is a brokerage that might go bust, or not pay you or worse take your money and run! I have had experience with brokers who refused to pay out my profits especially if they were large good runs and these brokers even made it such that it seemed that it was a technical error so they were not liable to pay! As you can imagine, I quickly closed my account and switched services. The crazy thing was that the broker refused to give me MY money! After a few phone calls and a couple of weeks later I finally managed to resolve that ugly spat and recovered my funds. Reliability and stability are absolutely essential for traders to have especially when we are faced with an ever changing market. With market situations as such, the last thing you need is for your broker to pull a fast one on you. For example when you are in the midst of a trade and suddenly the trade window hangs. It might be a technical issue you think, so you log back on immediately. To your surprise you realize that your trade has been canceled and that the money you placed into the trade was lost! This is something that you don’t need, so you try to contact the broker, but you emails never get answered and your calls fall on deaf ears. At this point in time the only thing you can do is to switch brokers. This will affect your trading and throw a wrench into your profits. Choose a good broker at the onset and you will fair better in the long run.

  • Why is it so Difficult to Make Consistent Profits in Forex?

We start off in Forex learning the easiest parts, things like chart reading and interpretation of data. We waste all that time and more trying to get the entry and exit correct, and it never crosses our mind that the most important aspect is ignored. Can be said to take place solely in your mind and without the right mind set, you have lost even before you began! Most new traders ignore the fact that training your mind and your heart is THE most important aspect of trading. That’s why close to 95% of new traders rarely see their 9th month, most traders would have been wiped out by the 6th month or even earlier. To survive and be profitable, you have to begin by changing your mindset and mental attitude. You cease to be a player instead you become a spectator in the market. You distance yourself away from your trades. To get a firm grasp on how the market works would take a person of average intelligence no more than 3 months. But as you and I know, it is not knowledge of the markets and how they function that will make you money. Instead it is the process and the decisions that arise from the process that affects our bottom line as traders. We are all different and for some, making a firm decision and staying by it is simple, for others it might not be the case. For example you have a good edge (trading plan) and that edge gives to you close to a 70% probability on normal market situations. You enter into a trade and you follow your rules of the trade (this we term as process). Now the trade turns against you and you lost your trade. The next trade that you enter, do you increase your stakes, do you become uncertain of your trading plan, or do you proceed as normal? While we discuss this on paper, it seems easy and even a little simplistic. When you are in the midst of trading, these simplistic principles become harshly complex. This is especially so as it is YOUR hard earned money and it becomes doubly painful to make a concrete decision. This decision making process is what most new traders find difficult to overcome and to master. There is no easy way around it and we all know that as humans we would go to extreme lengths to avoid pain, than to gain pleasure. There are of course means and ways to overcome this problem. In fact many traders that succeed do suggest this method as well. 1. Buy a note book 2. Take down all aspects of the trade, including your state of mind and your emotions 3. Take all trades as they come 4. Keep the journal for a week, and then review 5. Always write, before, during and after the trade. Now keep this journal serves a two fold purpose. The first being discipline and the second reflection. Discipline can be built by habit, that’s a piece of good news for traders who think they might have an issue with discipline. Like how you brush your teeth every morning, the same discipline can be applied to your journal. If you keep doing something for 21 days everyday , it becomes habit and once you manage to create this habit you can use your newly gain discipline and apply it to trading. Reflection is the second purpose that this journal will serve. When you know yourself and you know your emotions, you can better control them and better harness that energy. Trading can be emotionally tiring and draining. With your daily note keeping and weekly reflection you will be able to learn about your own psychology and that will help in your decision making process. At the very least it will highlight to you when you are in the midst of making a bad decision brought about by errant emotions!

  • How to Trade Forex Smart

Trading is a business, it can be played like a game but it really is a business .I you do it well, trading can potentially outstrip any conventional business in terms of monetary returns. But you should know this already, that’s why you are reading this in the first place. What you probably don’t know at the moment is how to trade Forex smart so that you will be a top earner and not a top loser. The definition of top earner I’ll leave that to you to define and find out, as each person differs in their profit expectations. But we can define a top loser as someone who has their account wiped out by more than 70% in 6 months time. We certainly want to avoid being in that situation! Now most traders never really see great profit growth because of some factors and these factors are: • Lack of discipline both mental and emotional • Under funded account • Over Leveraged account • No or money management plan The above mentioned are by no means exhaustive they are the most common factors but there are others that do cause failure as well. 1. Lack of discipline. This is a big issue and one that many traders cannot overcome easily. Having discipline is also the most important and fastest way to grow your account. I would suggest that you keep a trading journal, write your thoughts and your emotions you experience before, during and after the trade. After a week of entries reflect on each entry. You will build discipline and learn a lot about yourself this way. 2. Under funded account. If you wish to remain in the Forex game, then you must have the financial means to do so. If you take the money for your daily expenses to trade, that is foolish and will lead to you making emotional decisions that are risky\ and most likely lead to an account wipe. Try to start your trading account with at least $500 and no less, the optimal starting amount would be $1,000 and at regular periods of time try to pump in some funds. For example, you start out with $1,000 and every month you increase your capital by $200, so by the end of 12 months you would have $1,000 +$2,400=$3,600 as your trading capital. Of course the profits you earn by your trading will only cause your account to swell even further. 3. Over Leveraged Account. A good leverage for starters to take is no more than 1:100. Even if the brokers offer you leverages of 1:500 it doesn’t mean that you have to take such a large amount. Remember the higher your leverage, the more you have to pay out when you make a losing trade. Losing trades are so common that after a while with an over leveraged account you will be faced with an account wipe! 4. No or lousy money management plan. This is your holy grail to trading, money management coupled with tight discipline will give to a trader consistent profits. With consistent profits you will experience the power of compounding. That is what really grows an account. Money management is defensive, you seek to protect your account before anything else, focus on your account on not on your possible profits. When you have guarded your account then look to making profits. Keep in mind the above points when you next trade, at the onset it may seem a little difficult. Grit your teeth and push on, build your discipline and always trade with money management rules at the top of your head. You will see your just rewards at the end of the day!

  • Introduction of Automated Forex Trading Systems

There are many companies that create forex trading software, trading systems, signals and alert services. Money management strategies and potent trading systems that skyrocket your profits. How do these forex trading systems work?

Ever since the introduction of automated trading systems, there has been a surge in interest in this type of trading. Today this market is attracting small and medium investors so banks and other financial establishments are no longer the only players. At this market currencies are traded from various countries of the world. Because trillions of dollars are traded 24/7, it makes this one of the largest and most active financial markets.

Now that there is internet and advanced computer technology in place, any one with an internet connection, a trading account and good brokering knowledge can trade in forex. Close and constant monitoring is required if you want to keep your position as the global market never sleeps. Automated systems allow you to pick up a currency and record the asking and selling price. All that's required is a small seed amount and a broker because your buy and sell orders would be executed instantly.

You can profit from forex trading without becoming an expert as these automated systems can make this happen. The trading program acts like a human expert and manages the trading for you. You save a great deal of time with these auto systems since you do not have to carryout the trading yourself. When you monitor the market well, the auto trading system can help you trade multiple accounts simultaneously; this was never fully possible ever with manual trading. These systems have the advantage of trading with multiple systems in more than one market.

You can use automatic forex trading systems any time you like and it does not require your presence. There is no chance of missing any profitable opportunity even if you are not present in front of your computer. You can then take full advantage of several strategies and varied systems. You can plan your investment and spread your risk when you know that each system is built to be triggered by specific trade indicators.

There is no place for human emotions which adversely affect decisions; something that is not possible with these automatic forex trading systems. You can now have the capacity to manage several currencies and monitor and trade them too.

You can not expect consistent and sustainable profits if you do not pay attention to learning the basics of trading because no automated trading system can help you with these. Several factors and variables influence the forex market so just using an automated system can not guarantee you long term success in this venture. The automated forex trading system allows you the flexibility of customizing it to suit you.

  • Why You Should Roll a 401(k) Over to a Self Directed IRA

I was talking to an old friend one night on the telephone and he gradually brought the conversation around to work, my work not his. He asked me how to go about rolling his 401(k) over to an IRA and also what IRA did I recommend? I was slightly taken aback by this and I said "Charlie I have known you for over ten years and you have known all along what I do for a living, why have you waited this long to ask for advice?" "Well Gordon" he said "I have been waiting for you to sell me on the idea." "My friend you really don't know how I work, do you? I will tell you how I go about getting customers." I took A deep breath and carried on. "You know I write articles about IRAs and real estate don't you, well if you read the articles you will see that I tell the reader to go to the bottom of the article and click on my url. This will take the reader to my website and they will be able to see what real estate is still viable in this economy today. And they will be able to find out how to roll over a 401(k) to an self directed IRA.

It is up to the reader then just how far they want to go with the information we have provided for them."



While 401(k) plans have some good points they also have a down side compared to a self directed IRA.. It is suggested that anyone who wants to rollover a 401(k) change over to a self directed IRA. There are many reasons for this and this article will help explain why it is better to roll over the 401(k) to a self directed IRA. One of the biggest reasons for changing the 401(k) over to an IRA in the first place, is to allow for greater variety in investment choices. If changing over to a traditional IRA, a big part of the benefit is lost, as traditional types of IRA still have many limits on the type of assets you can invest in. The person rolling their 401(k) over should choose a self directed IRA, as it allows for full control of your money.



All IRAs are better than a 401(k) because 401(k)s are bound to your employer and his company. This means the company sets things up for the greatest benefit for itself and not for the greatest benefit of the person who holds the account. A self directed IRA is the best way to go as this type of account has a custodian that guides you through all the pitfalls and the rules, but does not control what happens in the account. When the account holder is not bound by other interests, there is no limit to the investments that can benefit the account holder. In conclusion a self directed IRA is simply the best choice for rolling over a 401(k).



At the risk of repeating myself if you want a more TURNKEY type of investment. Go to the url at the bottom of this article and go to my website, there you will find more information on IRAs and real estate investing.

  • How to Profit in the Crash of 2008?

You've heard it said, "One man's demise is another man's opportunity", haven't you?

Well being one who lived and was trading the markets during the October 1987 Crash i.e., Black Friday and Monday, I'm here to tell you there is money to be made, big money.

While the Wall street guru's occupy your time trying to figure out what the hell to talk about, money has already decided what will happen and are repositioning themselves for the next advance, which by our work should ensue very, very soon.

Long term technicals are screaming "OVERSOLD", which is bullish for the intermediate term, if your skittish, then we'd play, and were playing "straddle" option positions all last week. These positions are ideal for the kind of volatility we've seen in the last week (swings of 1000 points), was a crash back in 1987, today it's a completely different ball game.

WHAT TO DO NEXT?

Our work is telling us that the market is seeking out a bottom at around 77 -7800 on the dow. We are not taking a firm long position until the market has attained that objective. As we ease into that number, we feel that the market volatility will begin to wane as the floor traders begin to "suck" out the premium from the options market. Hence, we are planning on placing spreads, e.g., bear spreads (out of the money and above some ver key levels in the Dow).

A SPREAD - Why?

1. Whenever the market goes through this type of volatile period (up or down), it always pauses to refresh itself, readjust itself to reality and as it does, so goes the premium in the options as well as the volatility in all the indices. Hence, your "bear" spread position, should and would become profitable at a steady pace.

2. Though many of you reading this now, don't believe it, the fact is this as the market volatility evaporates, option premiums deplete and so goes the "crazy" movement/swings that we've become accustomed this last week. Therefore, the market may not see the "break-down" levels for many months to come, and when they do return to 11K to test that break-down (which I believe will be another short position), markets always RETURN to previous lofty levels, as if something was left unfinished.

HOW TO PROFIT IF YOU HAVE A PAPER LOSS?

It really is a simple tool that many traders have been using for decades - sell positions against YOUR HOLDINGS... Huh? Yes, most all of the exchange traded stocks have attached derivatives i.e., options. So, while you may have a paper loss, you still own the stock - right? Force the market to take it back, someone on the floor MUST TAKE (BUY) what you're willing to sell, THAT IS THEIR JOB!

It's important to get in the right mindset, yes your holdings are worth less (not worthless) in value, so why not sell "options" against your positions - going out three months or more where there is heavy premium and you can start getting back to even with the markets. Keep doing this month after month or quarter after quarter and you can wind up taking in 15% or more on your once lofty investments.

When the market and or your stocks get back to their higher P/E levels, higher prices and then you can decide to sell your holdings (and participate) in the next down-turn from those levels - the market will attempt a rally and those of you that got hurt, i.e., missed selling out at higher levels, and trust me many investor's will be selling out (getting even) ot the 11K levels.

These are two of the many ways we chose to invest in the current environment. No doubt these are turmultuous times in the marketplace, but make no mistake there are many, many fail-safes in place in which a trader/investor can profit - NONE OF WHICH WERE PRESENT IN 1929!

Trust me traders like myself are licking their chops at all the opportunity awaiting the nibble traders and investors. ~ Good Trading!

  • How To Read Stocks Investment Tables

If you're someone who has never paid attention to stocks investment
before but are now toying with the idea of dabbling in the stock market, one of the things you will have to learn is how to read the stocks investment tables that you see in the business section of your newspaper.

Right now all those numbers seem to be Greek language to you perhaps, but if you know what each one stands for and how these numbers relate to each other, it will become easy to understand.

The Wall Street Journal, Investor's Business Daily, and the business section of most dailies show charts and tables from different major stock exchanges such as the NYSE, the Nasdaq, and AMEX. Information about penny stocks is found in the Russell 2000, and S&P 600 stock tables. Understanding stocks investment tables is helpful if you are looking for a worthwhile stocks investment opportunity, or if you want to track the stocks that you have bought.

52 week high - This is the highest price that the stock has reached in the last 52 weeks. This price will give you an idea of where the stock is now in reference to its performance in the past.

52-week low: This is the lowest price that the stock has reached in the last 52 weeks. This is information is helpful in analyzing the stocks performance over a period of time.

Div: A div, or dividend, is a payment made by the company to the stockholder. If the company pays a dividend, it will show in this column. The price you will see here is the annual dividend per share of stock.

Yld: This means Yield, and refers to the percentage of the dividend over the stock price. If a company did not give any dividends, the value would be zero.

P/E: This is the ratio between the price of the stock and the company's earnings. The figure is reported as per single share of stock. The P/E ratio is also called earnings multiple or multiple, and is used to determine whether a stock is expensive and therefore a good stocks investment. For large cap stocks, a P/E of 10 to 20 is ideal, and for growth or small caps stocks, this should be 30 to 40, not more.

The P/E ratio is one of the most important figures on the stock table because it will tell you whether your smart caps stock is a good buy or not. If you notice that a company has no P/E ratio, this means that the company reported a loss in the last year and would probably not be a good stocks investment.

Vol: This refers to the trading volume of the stock, meaning the total number of stocks of the company that were bought and sold for the day. What you would have to watch out for is a highly active activity - positive or negative - for that stock. If the trading volume has an excessive difference from that stocks normal range, then something must be going on.

It may be that the company has just entered into a new deal with another company or introduced a new product, or it may experiencing financial problems.

High/Low: The high and low figures indicate the highest and lowest price at which the stock was bought and sold for a particular day.

Day Last: This figure tells you the price at which the stock ended during the trading for the day.

Chg: This number refers to the Net Change between the stocks performance at the end of today, compared with the end of the previous day.

There are many more figures and codes to a stock table, but these are the most common. Some stock exchanges and electronic quotation systems will show more figures than others. If you can begin to understand these figures, after a while you will find yourself getting out that paper, pen and calculator to do work out your own computations and estimates.

  • Value Stock Market Crash Report

There has never been a correction that has not proven to be an investment opportunity. While everything is down in price, there is actually less to worry about than when prices are historically high. More money has been lost by people who bought into last year's markets than by those who will buy into this one, at this stage of the correction. When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.

Every correction is different, the result of various economic and/or political circumstances that create the need for adjustments in the financial markets. This correction is worse than most that I've experienced, but the doom and gloom scenarios many have been pushing are unlikely to come to fruition. Once the media elects a new president, they'll just have to start reporting better news: 96% of all mortgages are current sounds a whole lot better than 20% of all sub-prime mortgages are in trouble.

Some fundamentals in many excellent companies have eroded significantly (due in part to accounting rules that are being changed), but for the most part, interest payments are being made and few dividends have been cut. Bargain prices abound in both the equity and fixed income markets and interest rates are historically low.

A cocktail of credit market laxatives is working its way into a constipated world economy. Relief is on the way. Today's prices may well be looked at as the lowest of the next ten years! Here's a list of things to think about or to do while Investment Grade value Stock prices are at ten-year lows:

Don't beat yourself up by looking at your account market value. You should expect it to be down significantly because all security prices have fallen. Look for ways to add to your portfolios---that's what the smart guys are doing.

Keep in mind that someone is buying the individual shares that the others are selling. The buyers will hold on until they can turn a profit, and the cash on the sidelines will eventually find its way back into the markets as prices rise.

There are no crystal balls, and no place for hindsight in an investment strategy. Buying too soon, in the right portfolio percentage, is nearly as important to long-term investment success as selling too soon is during rallies.

Take a look at the future. Nope, you can't tell when the rally will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality securities now, as you certainly should be, you will be able to love the rally even more than you did the last time--- as you take yet another round of profits.

As, or if, the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed to more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely so that you can add to them safely later. There's more to "Shop at The Gap" than meets the eye, and you may run out of cash well before the new rally begins.

Cash flow is king, so take smaller profits sooner than usual as long as there are abundant buying opportunities. Today, nearly eighty percent of all Investment Grade Value Stocks are down more than 15% from their 52-week highs.

In looking at your income securities, cash flow is the primary concern; as long as it continues unabated, the change in market value is merely a perceptual/emotional issue. A loosening of the credit markets should move CEF prices back into normal ranges.

Note that Working Capital keeps growing in spite of falling prices. Examine your holdings for opportunities to average down on cost per share or to increase your yield on fixed income securities.

Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of rules, rally or correction. That way you will always know which of the two you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street propaganda mill spits out. Focus on Investment Grade Value Stocks; it's easier, generally less risky, and better for your peace of mind.

Stop examining your portfolio's performance in market value terms--- it leads to fearful, often frantic, decision-making. Keep your asset allocation and investment objectives clearly in focus and try to think in terms of market and economic cycles as opposed to calendar quarters and years. The Working Capital Model provides a calmer way of dealing with portfolio dislocations during severe corrections.

So long as everything is down, there is really less to worry about. This is the result of panic selling by ETF and open-end mutual fund owners and the beginnings of year-end window dressing by fund managers.

Corrections, regardless of cause, will vary in depth and duration, but both characteristics are only clearly visible in rear view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable; the long and slow ones are more difficult to deal with. If you over-think the environment or over-cook the research, you'll miss the after-party.

Unlike many things in life, Stock Market realities need to be dealt with quickly, decisively, and with zero hindsight. Because amid all the uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact that reads equally well in either market direction: there has never been a correction/rally that has not succumbed to the next rally/correction.

Get out there and buy low for a change.